In a time of geopolitical upheaval, Brazil is increasingly positioning itself as a strategic commodity giant with growing global influence. As Stefan Zweig wrote in his book "Brazil: Land of the Future":
"In Brazil the gifts of nature exist in abundance, and with wise use they could shape an entire century."
This vision from 1941 takes on a new dimension today, as the country's immense natural resources form the foundation for a potential key role in the emerging world order.1
Commodities as a foundation for geopolitical influence
Brazil's potential global power lies in its commodities. They form not only the economic base but also the lever for exerting influence on the world stage. The strategic significance of these resources is particularly evident in the following areas:
An essential raw material for batteries and electric mobility. Brazil, and Minas Gerais in particular, ranks among the world's leading producers. Global lithium demand rose by 24 % in 2023 and is expected to grow by 20 % annually through 2030.2
Brazil is the second-largest exporter worldwide and covers 16 % of global supply, mainly through Vale S.A.3 With more than 2 billion tonnes of annual demand, iron ore plays a key role in steel production.4
With more than 140 million tonnes of soybeans per year, Brazil covers 38 % of global demand.5 These exports drive the production of sustainable biofuels.
Brazil controls 90 % of global niobium production, an element that is indispensable for high-strength steels, especially in aerospace and construction.6
With the third-largest reserves worldwide, Brazil is a potential principal supplier of high-tech materials. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, terbium and yttrium are needed in electric motors, semiconductors and wind turbines.7
Brazil's wealth of commodities positions the country as a key actor of the future in global supply chains and technological development. Realising this potential in full, however, requires deliberate strategies.
Source: USGS, Mining Study 2024
Geopolitical strategies built on commodities
To unlock its full potential, Brazil must deploy economic, technological and diplomatic levers in a targeted way:
Trade strategy
Brazil can use its commodity exports deliberately to strengthen political alliances. 70 % of lithium exports currently go to China, and a deliberately managed diversification could deepen partnerships with Europe, India and Africa. Strategic trade allocations could foster technological cooperation and convert economic dependencies into diplomatic strength.8
Technological partnerships
Through targeted cooperation, Brazil can link its commodity wealth with technology transfer. Partnerships such as Vale S.A.'s joint venture with a German consortium show how exports and technological innovation can create synergies. This strengthens Brazil's position in future markets such as CO2-free steel production.
Leveraging geopolitical forums
International platforms such as COP30 or BRICS allow Brazil to use its commodities as bargaining power. The "Global Biofuels Alliance" underpins Brazil's leadership in sustainable technologies.
Building a geopolitical commodity network
For long-term success, applying isolated strategies is not enough. These approaches need to be embedded in a comprehensive concept: the construction of a "geopolitical commodity network" that integrates trade, technology and diplomacy into a single strategic vision.
28 % of Brazil's trade volume goes to China.9 A broader buyer base spanning Europe, India and Africa would increase economic resilience.
Strengthening Mercosur enables deeper economic integration across South America and creates a stable power base in the form of an expanding internal market.
Brazil's role as an indispensable commodity supplier opens up room for manoeuvre in the WTO and the UN to advance its strategic interests.
By investing in processing, Brazil becomes less exposed to commodity price volatility and gains technological influence.
Local processing and value creation
The full potential can only be realised through local processing and value creation from these commodities. This step is decisive for establishing Brazil not merely as a supplier but also as a technology leader.
Lithium technology hub
The export value of lithium already stands at USD 3 billion. By creating a technology hub in Minas Gerais, this value could rise to USD 10 billion while building technological expertise and independence.10
Sustainable agribusiness
Processing soybeans into biofuels could raise value creation in agribusiness by up to 15 % and secure Brazil a pioneering role in the field of renewable energy.11
Brazil's strategic positioning in a multipolar world
In an increasingly multipolar world, Brazil has the opportunity to take on a key role as a strategic mediator and commodity giant. Success will depend on the ability to balance relationships with its most important trading partners skilfully.
Largest trading partner at USD 150.5 billion (28 % of foreign trade) in 2024. Main buyer of lithium (70 %), iron ore and soy. Chinese investment of USD 5.5 billion in infrastructure and energy projects.12
Second-largest trading partner at USD 95.3 billion in 2024. The EU-Mercosur free trade agreement opens up new opportunities. Investment in renewable energy rose by 35 % to USD 3.2 billion.13
USD 88.7 billion in trade volume in 2024. US investment in the oil and gas sector rose by 20 % to USD 4.8 billion. New aerospace and cybersecurity projects, but political tensions over Venezuela and Iran.14
Intensified BRICS cooperation. The "Global Biofuels Alliance" targets a 30 % market expansion by 2030. Bilateral trade reached USD 15.3 billion with 50 % growth potential by 2030.15
What this means for European companies
"The EU depends on emerging economies like Brazil to strengthen its geo-economic resilience and advance decarbonisation." - Jule Könneke, SWP
Key opportunities
Brazil's reserves of lithium, rare earths and niobium offer European companies the chance to secure supply for key industries such as the automotive and high-tech sectors.
Involvement in projects such as local lithium processing or green steel supports knowledge transfer and strengthens supply chain sustainability through joint ventures or long-term partnerships.
Brazil is positioning itself as a leading market for solar and wind power. European companies can benefit from the market potential and contribute to the global energy transition.
Working with Brazil allows companies to diversify their supply chains and reduce dependencies on other regions.
Challenges
Brazil's multipolar and self-assured approach calls for careful alignment of strategies. Taking local specifics into account, from the regulatory framework to social and cultural dynamics, is decisive. European companies are also under growing pressure to uphold social and environmental standards, particularly in sensitive regions such as the Amazon.
Outlook
Brazil stands at a turning point. The country has the historic chance to lift itself out of the category of emerging economies and to step onto the world stage with renewed self-confidence. Thanks to its immense commodity wealth, Brazil already plays a central role in the global economy today. Yet a sustainable ascent will only succeed if the country strengthens its industrial base, fosters innovation and bets on future-proof sectors.
In a shifting geopolitical landscape, President Lula has to balance the interests of major powers such as China, the United States and Europe while at the same time advancing regional cooperation in South America. The BRICS chairmanship and COP30 in Belém in November 2025 give Brazil the opportunity to expand its leadership role in the Global South.
These ambitions, however, face considerable challenges: competition from emerging economies such as Indonesia and Vietnam, protectionist trade practices by important partner states, internal infrastructure problems and limited innovative capacity. Political instability in the region and possible setbacks driven by the policies of international actors could put Brazil's position under further pressure.
The coming years will show whether Brazil takes the decisive step and establishes itself as an economic powerhouse and a model for the rise of commodity-rich countries in the Global South, or whether it remains the "land of the future" that, despite its enormous potential, never quite achieves the breakthrough.
Sources
- Zweig, S. (1941). Brasilien: Ein Land der Zukunft. Bermann-Fischer Verlag.
- BloombergNEF. (2024). Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024.
- Vale S.A. (2024). Annual Report 2023.
- World Steel Association. (2024). World Steel in Figures 2024.
- Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture. (2024). Agricultural Production Report.
- World Steel Association. (2024). World Steel in Figures 2024.
- Rare Earth Industry Association. (2024). Global Rare Earth Elements Market Analysis.
- Observatory of Economic Complexity. (2024). Brazil Export Data.
- Brazilian Ministry of Economy. (2024). Foreign Trade Statistics.
- China-Brazil Business Council. (2024). Annual Report on Bilateral Trade.
- European Commission. (2024). EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement: One Year On.
- U.S. Department of Commerce. (2024). U.S.-Brazil Trade Facts.
- Goldman Sachs. (2024). Commodities Outlook: Lithium.
- International Energy Agency. (2024). Renewables 2024 Analysis and Forecast to 2030.
- BRICS. (2024). Joint Statement of the 16th BRICS Summit.